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MNI INSIGHT: BOJ's Cautious Easing To Stay Despite New Blood

By Hiroshi Inoue 
     TOKYO (MNI) - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is sending another reflationist to
the Bank of Japan policy board but the central bank will maintain its cautious
monetary easing stance, according to sources familiar with BOJ thinking.
     Pending parliamentary approval, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will serve his
second five-year term after the aggressive easing he launched in April 2013 has
failed to boost inflation to a stable 2%, hit by a plunge in crude oil prices
and the stubborn deflationary mindset held by firms and households. His current
term ends on April 8.
     In his recent remarks, Kuroda has stressed that the bank is watching the
side-effects of large-scale monetary stimulus, which is squeezing lender
profits. It has also led to very low returns on investments in Japanese
government debt and corporate bonds, hurting pension funds and causing life
insurers to shift to riskier higher-yielding foreign securities.
     -- STAYING ON COURSE
     Kuroda's cautious approach will be supported by Masayoshi Amamiya, dubbed
"Prince" and "Mr. BOJ." Amamiya will be promoted to one of the two deputy
governors from executive director in charge of monetary policy. He has drafted
aggressive easing measures and has been playing a main part in policy decisions
for more than 20 years.
     The government has also nominated Masazumi Wakatabe, an economics professor
sympathetic to Prime Minister Abe's reflationary policy mix, to the other deputy
governor.
     Wakatabe has testified during his confirmation Diet hearings that he does
not believe the side-effects of aggressive easing have emerged. He has argued
for raising the BOJ's annual pace of Japanese government bond purchases from the
current Y80 trillion to Y90 trillion and broadening the range of financial
assets that the bank buys.
     Amamiya, 62, and Wakatabe, 52, will replace Hiroshi Nakaso, a career
central banker, and Kikuo Iwata, a reflationist former economics professor.
Their five-year terms end on March 19.
     -- DEPUTIES MAY DISAGREE
     As for the conduct of monetary policy, any conflict between Amamiya and
Wakatabe is unlikely to emerge as long as the Japanese economy continues
recovering, a former senior BOJ official who spoke on condition of anonymity
told MNI.
     The person, however, said, should concern over a serious economic downturn
increase or should the yen rise sharply, the two men would be divided over
whether the bank should conduct additional easing or in that case, what policy
tools -- asset purchase or interest rates -- should be used.
     While Amamiya has been playing a key role in policy shifts, first to
massive asset purchases in 2013 and then to yield curve control in 2016, he
thinks the BOJ's quantitative easing has had little effects on growth and
inflation amid the shrinking workforce, and thus the number of consumers, three
sources who are familiar with the BOJ policy-making process told MNI.
     Amamiya fully supports Kuroda's view that additional easing isn't necessary
as long as the momentum toward achieving the 2% price stability target is
maintained, they said.
     Even if the BOJ's often-delayed estimated timing of hitting the 2%
inflation target is pushed back again from the current estimate of "around
fiscal 2019," that factor alone would not prompt the bank to conduct additional
easing, Kuroda has said.
     On the other hand, Wakatabe is a reflationist usring expanded monetary
easing to overcome deflation but his argument may be outdated. He is focused on
quantitative easing while the BOJ has shifted its easing target to interest
rates.
     Wakatabe is also calling for continued fiscal stimulus. He has proposed
delaying the government plan to raise the sales tax further to 10% from the
current 8% in October 2019.
     MORE
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMJBJI,MAJDS$,MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$,MT$$$$,MX$$$$,MGJ$$$]

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