MNI Insight: Global Macro – Growth Outlook Improved, Numerous Uncertainties

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

• 2023 growth expectations have been consistently revised up. This has been helped by the reopening of China, although projections have been revised down somewhat recently as data have disappointed.
• Global output and trade growth have been lacklustre but appear to have troughed in line with the bottoming out of the global manufacturing PMI, shipping rates and metal prices. But Asian PMIs have weakened recently and tech exports remain subdued signalling a renewed downturn in trade.
• Headline inflation has turned down significantly since it peaked late last year but core has proven stickier, especially in the OECD, which is likely to keep those central banks hawkish. Most Asian ones have paused.

See full chartbook here:

Global Macro June 2023 .pdf