MNI INSIGHT: RBA Mulls Tighter Guidance For July Meet

The Reserve Bank of Australia is beginning to wonder whether it should signal a higher probability of a rates increase by the end of 2024 at its July meeting, even as it considers a near-term extension of its bond-purchasing programme in the face of continuing weak inflation and wages data, MNI understands.

While the RBA is determined to see the whites of inflation's eyes for an extended period before any tightening, as wages growth, currently at a sluggish 1.25%, picks up and capacity tightens, it has upgraded growth forecasts and subtly changed its language on rates to match. Whereas it previously said that it did not expect conditions for an interest rate rise "to be met until 2024 at the earliest," in May the bank said that these conditions are "unlikely" to be met by then.

Further adjustments to the language could come in July, when the central bank will also decide on whether to extend its yield control target of 0.10% to three-year bonds government maturing in November 2024, from current guidance targeting the April 2024 series. The yield target matches the 0.10% historic low for official interest rates, the level since November 2020.

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The RBA is aware that investors have a more optimistic view of the economy, expecting it to raise rates, sometime in 2023, but, in the meantime wages growth and inflation remain underwhelming. Additional fiscal stimulus from the AUD161 billion deficit announced in this week's Federal Budget, while welcome, will not substantially change RBA forecasts.

The RBA will also decide in July on whether to extend its AUD200 billion program of purchasing longer-dated government bonds. With the second AUD100 billion tranche of QE due to end in September, the bank wants to give the market sufficient notice of its intentions, and waiting until July should allow it time to consider fresh data before making a decision.

After the AUD200 program is complete. the RBA will hold around 30% of government debt, far from the limits set by other central banks for their QE holdings, so such constraints are little concern for now.