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MNI INTERVIEW: Germany Faces Permanent Loss of Competitiveness

(MNI) LONDON

The loss of Russian gas will force change on German industry, according to economist Oliver Holtemoeller.

Germany’s economy could perform worse than expected as interest rates rise, a leading economist told MNI in an interview, heralding difficult choices for government as it prioritises the immediate social and economic impact of rising energy prices even as the country faces a permanent loss of competitive advantage.

While a joint economic forecast by four leading think tanks sees Europe’s largest economy growing 1.4% this year before contracting 0.4% in 2023, this may be over-optimistic if the European Central Bank tightens policy more than hoped, said Oliver Holtemoeller, from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which contributed to the projection.

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Germany’s economy could perform worse than expected as interest rates rise, a leading economist told MNI in an interview, heralding difficult choices for government as it prioritises the immediate social and economic impact of rising energy prices even as the country faces a permanent loss of competitive advantage.

While a joint economic forecast by four leading think tanks sees Europe’s largest economy growing 1.4% this year before contracting 0.4% in 2023, this may be over-optimistic if the European Central Bank tightens policy more than hoped, said Oliver Holtemoeller, from the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which contributed to the projection.

Keep reading...Show less