- PolicyPolicy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: - G10 MarketsG10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI Podcasts - Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- CommoditiesCommodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
- Data
- MNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: PBOC Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1730 Thursday; -3.35% Y/Y
MNI China Press Digest Sep 21:Premier Li, Housing, Coal Prices
MNI: PBOC Injects Net 141 Bln Via OMO Thurs; Rates Unchanged
MNI BRIEF: NZ GDP Beats Expectations At 0.9% Q/Q
MNI INTERVIEW: RBNZ Set To Hike In October Despite Lockdowns
Robust business confidence data released on Monday is evidence that new lockdowns in New Zealand have not dented the strength of the economic recovery and pointed to the central bank going through with plans for a rate rise at its October meeting, according to a former bank official.
Sharon Zollner, the RBNZ's senior economist for eight years to 2006, said the central bank has set itself a "high hurdle of a net negative demand shock" for it not to raise rates, and there was little evidence so far that the current lockdowns had created such conditions.
"Last time they said it would take a lot for them not to raise rates at the next opportunity, so the burden of proof was not to hike," said Zollner, who is now chief economist for ANZ based in Auckland.
In July, Zollner forecast rate hikes out to the end of next year, see: MNI INTERVIEW: RBNZ To Hike To 1.75% By End 2022.
ANZ BUSINESS SURVEY, OTHER DATA
ANZ today released its Business Outlook Survey for September, based on interviews taken in the period up to September 10, which showed a seven-point rise in business confidence.
Zollner said this indicated that businesses could see the "light at the end of the tunnel" after the pandemic.
Other data, such as credit card spending and traffic movement data, was also showing that this lockdown "was not causing the same level of freak out the first one did."
The labour market continued to be very tight.
CREDIBILITY
"People will be feeling a lot more comfortable that their job will be there on the other side of this because as an employer you would be made to let your workers go and assume you were going to get them back later," said Zollner, adding there was nothing in current data which would make the RBNZ hold off raising rates in October.
If the bank did not raise rates, she said, they would then "struggle to convince the market that they mean what they say they mean next time around."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.