Free Trial

MNI INTERVIEW: One-Off Factors Slow PCE Inflation:Fed's Dolmas

--Repeating Story Initially Sent At 7:01 AM ET Wednesday
By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - A sharp deceleration in the Federal Reserve's preferred
inflation gauge may have been driven by one-off factors, Dallas Fed economist
Jim Dolmas said in an interview, noting that alternative trend inflation
measures point to the rate of increases in prices holding steady at close to the
2% target.
     Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation for items excluding food and
energy slid to 1.6% in March from 2.0% in December. But the Dallas Fed trimmed
mean PCE inflation has stayed in a tight 1.9% to 2.0% range this year, while the
Cleveland Fed median CPI actually accelerated to 2.8% year-over-year in March
from 2.7% at the start of the year. The Atlanta Fed sticky-price CPI held at
2.4% over the same period.
     "Inflation moving about sideways is my forecast," Dolmas told MNI. "The
trimmed mean has been around 1.9% or 2.0% for almost a year. A year from now, I
see it still at 2%."
     Fed Chair Jay Powell drew attention to the steady performance of trimmed
mean PCE while describing the next rates move as data dependent last week. If
policymakers are persuaded to discount temporary price shocks, they may be less
eager to take out "insurance" rate cuts to bolster inflation in an otherwise
healthy economy
--HISTORICALLY SUPERIOR
     The Commerce Department's core inflation measure has underestimated actual
inflation over the past 15 years, Dolmas and colleague Evan Koenig found in a
working paper published Monday.
     Since 2005, headline PCE inflation has averaged 1.8%, compared to around
1.6% for core PCE. Dallas's trimmed mean measure, which reflects the central
tendency of price gains among goods and services, proved to be more accurate,
also averaging 1.8% since 2005.
     What's more, the Phillips Curve relationship between unemployment and the
trimmed mean rate appears to be stable over the past four decades, with a larger
and highly significant coefficient of -0.2 when compared to a regression using
the official core inflation rate, they found.
     "In stripping out noise from inflation measures, the signal comes through
on the relationship between inflation and slack in the economy," Dolmas said.
     --NOISE FACTORS
     Large declines in prescription drug and physician services prices (at a -2%
annualized rate), financial services (-8%) and airfares (-12%) in the first
quarter "stuck out like sore thumbs" and put the brakes on PCE inflation, Dolmas
said. The 1.9% decline in apparel prices that dragged down the March inflation
numbers were of less consequence on a quarterly basis.
     But on the other side, heavily weighted categories of rent and dining out
prices picked up in the first quarter. These core services are good gauges for
the underlying inflation trend.
     The pick-up in rent inflation to 3.7% in March from 3.4% at the start of
the year was "a bit of a surprise," Dolmas said, but may not persist.
     Overall, "the outliers aren't telling you about where the central tendency
of inflation is. On an eyeball test, it's hard to say where the central tendency
moved. In some sense it didn't move much at all," he said.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMUFE$,M$U$$$]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.