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MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: MNI Global Inflation Gauge Nears Pre-GFC High

Executive Summary:

  • The deterioration in Russia/Ukraine conflict is very likely to result in an acceleration in inflationary pressures, driven by the surge in energy prices with Brent futures breaking above $110 for the first time since 2014.
  • Some EM central banks have hinted that the surge in inflation risks will prolong the tightening cycle in order to ease the selling pressure on the currency. This is particular evident across Central and Eastern Europe.
  • Our global inflation gauge rose to 5.2% in January (based on the inflation rate of 70 DM and EM countries), its highest level since July 2008. Global inflation peaked at 5.3% just before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis based on MNI calculations.

Link to full publication:

Inflation Global - March.pdf

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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