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MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: Will The Rebound In China ‘Liquidity’ Matter For Asset Prices This Year?

Executive summary:

  • Even though aggregate financing rose less than expected in July, China ‘liquidity’ metric, computed as the annual change in China Total Social Financing (TSF), continues to rise, now up 3tr USD in the past year.
  • Hence, Investors have been questioning if the rise China ‘liquidity’ this time will be enough to stimulate both domestic and international asset prices.

Link to full publication:

MNI MARKETS ANALYSIS - China Liquidity.pdf

The PBoC reported this morning that aggregate financing rose by 756bn CNY in June (figure 1, left frame), significantly below expectations of 1.35tr CNY with new yuan loans rising by 679bn CNY (1.125tr CNY exp.). However, China ‘liquidity’ metric, computed as the annual change in China Total Social Financing (TSF), continues to rise, now up 3tr USD in the past year (figure 1, right frame).

Figure 1

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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