Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
A sharp sell-off in the E-mini S&P yesterday highlights the first significant threat to the bullish cycle that has been in place since early November. The key technical developments that warn of a top are:
- A clear breach of the 20-day EMA yesterday at 3706.50. The close below this average reinforces the short-term significance of the break.
- Support at 3740.50, Jan 19 low has also been breached.
- This leaves the 50-day EMA exposed. The average intersects at 3696.02 and represents an important support area today. A break would strengthen a bearish case.
- It could be argued that yesterday's candle pattern is a bearish engulfing reversal.
Note, both the 20- and 50-day EMAs continue to highlight a broader bullish theme. This is important as levels below the 50-day EMA would represent a potential "buy-zone" - a strong area of support. Buy-zones in this instance do not refer to specific price levels. Instead they highlight a price region where demand may begin to increase. We will be on the lookout for any basing signals near-term.
An additional bearish technical feature to note is our trend direction model in the index. This tracks underlying sentiment on the 60-minute frequency and it shifted to bearish yesterday. This reverses the previous bull signal that had been in place since Nov 4 2020. The signal is important in that it highlights a new bearish risk in this market.
Support levels to watch are:
- SUP 1: 3696.02 - 50-day EAM
- SUP 2: 3562.50 - Jan 4 low
- SUP 3 3568.50 - High Sep 3, 2020 and a former breakout level.
Key resistance has been defined at 3862.25, the Jan 26 high. A break would resume the uptrend and negate any bearish risk.