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Expected to keep policy unchanged despite rising inflationary pressures as the worsening Covid19 situation is weighing on growth expectations.
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The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its reference rate, Lombard rate and deposit rate steady at 0.1%, 0.50% and 0%, respectively, despite rising inflationary pressures as the worsening Covid19 situation is weighing on growth expectations. Even though a rise in economic activity is expected in 2021 following the 2.7% contraction in 2020, uncertainty over the duration of the elevated restrictions imposed by the government is very high and therefore the pace of the recovery remains also uncertain.
Figure 1: Polish inflation nudging top-end of NBP tolerance band