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MNI NBP Preview - January 2022: NBP Policy Rate To Reach September 2014 Highs

The NBP is likely to keep the pace of its tightening cycle and hike the policy rate by 50bps on January 4th to curb the inflationary pressures.

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Executive Summary:

  • NBP is likely to raise its policy rate by 50bps to 2.25%
  • NBP new preliminary projections see average 2022 inflation at 7.6%, with a peak at 8.3% in June 2022
  • A 50bps hike is probably priced in by the market and therefore could lead to a little PLN depreciation following the decision

Link to full preview:

MNI Poland CB Preview Jan 4.pdf

The National Bank of Poland is likely to keep the pace of its tightening cycle and hike the policy rate by 50bps on January 4th to curb the inflationary pressures. Even though the rise in uncertainty over the economic outlook keeps weighing on growth expectations, inflation continued to surprise positively in November, therefore pressuring NBP policymakers to act.