September 03, 2024 07:39 GMT
MNI NBP Preview - Sept 2024: On Hold Until '25
No change in policy expected, with rates seen on hold until next year
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Executive Summary:
- NBP highly likely to keep policy unchanged
- No easing expected this year, but rhetoric is softening for rate cuts in 2025
- Glapinski's tone in Thursday's press conference likely of more market interest than Wednesday's policy announcement
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here: MNINBPPrevSep24.pdf
It is highly unlikely that any of the ten members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will cast their vote in favour of a rate cut this week, with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) widely expected to stand pat on rates at least through the end of 2024.
That being said, a growing number of members have been flagging the potential for interest-rate cuts in 2025, with Governor Adam Glapiński eventually softening his hawkish forward guidance. The official may provide a more formal update on the interest-rate outlook during the upcoming press conference, taking stock of weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data at the start of Q3.
MNI (LONDON)
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