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MNI NBP Preview - Sept 2024: On Hold Until '25

Executive Summary:

  • NBP highly likely to keep policy unchanged
  • No easing expected this year, but rhetoric is softening for rate cuts in 2025
  • Glapinski's tone in Thursday's press conference likely of more market interest than Wednesday's policy announcement

Full preview including summary of sell-side views here: MNINBPPrevSep24.pdf

It is highly unlikely that any of the ten members of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will cast their vote in favour of a rate cut this week, with the National Bank of Poland (NBP) widely expected to stand pat on rates at least through the end of 2024.

That being said, a growing number of members have been flagging the potential for interest-rate cuts in 2025, with Governor Adam Glapiński eventually softening his hawkish forward guidance. The official may provide a more formal update on the interest-rate outlook during the upcoming press conference, taking stock of weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data at the start of Q3.

MNI (LONDON)

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