MNI NBP Review - April 2024: Steady Course
Governor Glapiński said cutting rates was not discussed by the Monetary Policy Council amid plenty of risks and uncertainties around the inflation outlook.
Executive Summary:
- The MPC left interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time.
- The balance of risks to the inflation outlook remains skewed to the upside.
- Governor Glapiński reaffirmed guidance suggesting rate stabilisation.
Full review document including a summary of sell-side views here:
MNI NBP Review - April 2024.pdf
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates unchanged for the sixth time in a row, while the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) flagged its continued concern about the familiar risks and uncertainties around the inflation outlook. Official communique reaffirmed the assessment that the return of CPI inflation to the +/- 1pp tolerance band around the +2.5% Y/Y target is temporary and will be followed by a firm rebound later this year, as the government phases out anti-inflation shields and the economy picks up steam. According to forecasts provided by Governor Glapiński, inflation may reach +3.9%-7.5% Y/Y in 4Q2024. Against this backdrop, the MPC did not even discuss cutting rates in April.