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MNI Norges Bank Review: December 2023 - The Insurance Hike

NORGES BANK

The Norges Bank followed through with its softened November policy guidance and hiked the policy rate 25bps to 4.50%. The decision was unanimous among the Executive Board.

  • Dovish impulses from the Q4 Regional Network Survey, November CPI and the December Fed decision in the run-up to the announcement meant the hike caught markets off guard. NOK strengthened considerably following the decision (EURNOK and USDNOK were almost 1.5% lower in the hour following, while NOK/SEK posted its largest daily gain of 2023) and the Dec 23 – Mar 24 FRA contract rose 17bps.
  • Analysts generally agree that the December hike was the Norges Bank’s last, and most reviews we have seen expect cuts to start from June 2024.
Our full review, including a summary of 11 sell-side reviews can be found here.

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