MNI Norges Bank Review - May 2021: H2 Hike on Track

Inline with March's rate path projections, the Norges Bank kept policy unchanged this month, keeping the focus on June's meeting and accompanying rate path projections.

The bank reiterated that "the policy rate will most likely be raised in the latter half of 2021" which, according to the March policy report, suggests either September or December as the most opportune meetings at which to start tightening. It's clear the board judge the economic developments since the March meeting as being within their range of expectations, with their forward-looking indicators firming further.

More evidence of growing optimism of a second-half recovery included the bank's decision to drop the word 'substantial' from their description of the uncertainty facing Norway. This should further cement expectations of the beginning of a tightening cycle from the second half of this year.

Full review document here:

MNINBRevMay21.pdf