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MNI Norges Bank Review - November 2023: Bar for December Hike Creeps Higher

Executive Summary:

  • Norges Bank kept rates unchanged at 4.25%, as expected
  • Board chose to again signal that December will likely see a further rate hike
  • Language tweaked to include possibility of a policy hold in case of a further decline in underlying inflation
Full PDF including summary of sell-side views here:

MNINBRevNov23.pdf

In keeping deposit rates unchanged at 4.25%, the bank met their guidance from the September meeting, at which they suggested the December meeting would be the most opportune next hike. While the statement retained that overall message, the bank chose to introduce wording allowing for a hold in rates policy should the decline in underlying inflation accelerate further.

This proved a dovish twist, and will heighten focus on the Nov10 and Dec11 inflation releases ahead. Despite no new formal projections or economic forecasts, the Bank made some notable changes and tweaks to their communication strategy at the November meeting, and most importantly introduced the option of unchanged policy rates should the deceleration in underlying inflation pick up across the next six weeks.

Central Bank ReviewHomepageNorges - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
Central Bank ReviewHomepageNorges - ReviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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