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MNI Norges Bank Review: November 2024 - Caution Prevails

Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected and made few changes to its cautious guidance.
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MNI (LONDON)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected and made few changes to its cautious guidance. The policy statement once again said that rates will “most likely be kept at 4.5 percent to the end of 2024”, as “the outlook for the Norwegian economy does not appear to have changed materially since the previous monetary policy meeting”.
  • The guidance was broadly consistent with the September MPR rate path, which assigns a ~20% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the December meeting and a near-certainty of such a move in Q1 2025.
  • Overall, we continue to expect Norges Bank to follow-through with its guidance and cut rates in Q1 2025, with the December monetary policy statement likely to guide more explicitly for such a move.

FULL PDF ANALYSIS HERE: MNI Norges Bank Review - 2024-11.pdf

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MNI (LONDON)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected and made few changes to its cautious guidance. The policy statement once again said that rates will “most likely be kept at 4.5 percent to the end of 2024”, as “the outlook for the Norwegian economy does not appear to have changed materially since the previous monetary policy meeting”.
  • The guidance was broadly consistent with the September MPR rate path, which assigns a ~20% implied probability of a 25bp cut at the December meeting and a near-certainty of such a move in Q1 2025.
  • Overall, we continue to expect Norges Bank to follow-through with its guidance and cut rates in Q1 2025, with the December monetary policy statement likely to guide more explicitly for such a move.

FULL PDF ANALYSIS HERE: MNI Norges Bank Review - 2024-11.pdf