August 05, 2022 00:17 GMT
MNI Payrolls Preview: Just How Much Softer
US DATA
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Friday, 0830ET: Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to 250k in July in a resumption of a downward trend after four remarkably steady months as the gap on pre-pandemic employment levels is almost completely shut.
- Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
- Unusually large swings in markets in the run in to this release create sizeable two-sided risk. Fed Funds futures are currently torn between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sept FOMC with a second payrolls report, two CPI reports and the Jackson Hole symposium still to come before then.
- Full report including previews from 13 sellside analysts here.
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