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Free AccessMNI POLICY: BOJ Q2 Real Export Index Dn 18.4%; Q3 Seen Rising
By Hiroshi Inoue
TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials expect the real export index to
gradually improve through Q3 after falling 18.4% q/q in Q2, MNI understands. The
sharp decline in the latest three month period was the third consecutive month
of decline.
Bank officials see exports of autos and IT-related goods picking up
gradually in the coming three months, but they expect exports of capital goods
to remain weak, restricting a sharp recovery of overall exports.
The BOJ said last week that it is likely that exports will be at low levels
for the time being, but will pick-up as the impact of Covid-19 wanes worldwide.
The June real export index, as BOJ economists expected, rose 1.6% m/m, the
first rise in four months. The pick up was expected, as economic activities
restarted in the U.S. and Europe.
--EXPORTS REMAIN WEAK
Japan's exports fell 26.2% year-on-year in June, for the 19th straight drop
following -28.3% in May, which was the biggest drop since September 2009 when it
fell 30.6%. Imports fell 14.4% year-on-year in June, for the 14th straight drop
following -26.2% in May.
Overall, Japan's trade deficit was JPY268.6 billion in June after a deficit
of JPY838.2 billion in May.
--WEAK AUTO, CAPITAL GOODS
Exports of automobiles fell 49.9% y/y in June following -64.1% in May,
with their goods down 52.3% in June vs. -57.2% . Shipments of automobiles to the
U.S., which account for about 40% of the total, plunged 63.3% in June following
a 78.9% fall in May. EU exports fell 26.2% after a 47.6% fall in May.
Machinery shipments fell again in June, down 24.5% after also falling 23.2%
in May, indicating overseas firms remained cautious on capital investment.
Capital goods exports are likely to remain on their downtrend for a while,
mainly for machine tools for automobile-related goods and construction machines
for the resources industry, the BOJ views.
Semiconductors exports fell 7.8% y/y in June, for the second straight drop
following -1.5% in May. Chip-making equipment exports fell 6.6% in June,
reversing a 12.4% rise in May.
China's economy is recovering but its impact on Japan's exports are
limited, with overall exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner,
down 0.2% y/y following -1.9% in May. Exports of automobiles to China rose 18.8%
in June, improving from a 20.8% fall in May.
Exports to the U.S. fell 46.6% y/y in June, a 11th straight drop,
narrowing from a 50.6% fall in May.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.