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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: BOJ Ups FY21 GDP View; FY23 Post-Kuroda CPI At 1%
The Bank of Japan Tuesday forecast the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, to rise 1.0% in fiscal 2023, meaning Japan cannot hit the 2% target after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's second five-year term ends on April 8.
The BOJ board lowered the median inflation forecast for this fiscal year to +0.1% from +0.5% made in January due to the expected downward pressure from lower mobile phone charges. The median forecast for fiscal 2022 was raised to +0.8% from January's 0.7%. As for growth, the board raised the median GDP forecast for this fiscal year to +4.0% from January's +3.9%. The GDP forecast for fiscal 2022 was also raised to +2.4% from +1.8%. In its first ever forecast for fiscal 2023, the bank tipped growth at +1.3%.
Despite the third state of emergency, the BOJ board maintained its economic recovery view but slightly lowered its near-term outlook, citing the impact of covid on in-person services. The BOJ also said that aggregate credit relative to the size of the economy has been increasing "at a pace significantly above the past trend" but added that it doesn't seem to show overheating of financial activity.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.