Free Trial

MNI POLICY: China Should Expand Global Trade Links: Li Daokui

MNI (London)
     BEIJING (MNI) - China should accelerate opening up its economy to the
European Union, Japan and the UK, offsetting business opportunities lost as the
trade war with the U.S. continues, whilst pressuring Washington into a greater
willingness to negotiate, Li Daokui, a former member of the People's Bank of
China Monetary Policy Committee member said Sunday.
     Li now a leading economist and dean of the Institute for China's Economic
Practice and Thinking of Tsinghua University, was speaking in Beijing as his
research team published its quarterly update on the economy.
     Here are the main points from the research note:
     -- China's economy will likely grow 6.9% in 2019, shrugging off the worst
effects of the Sino/U.S. trade war. Beijing could help fight off headwinds by
boosting returns on state-owned assets. By increasing the return by one
percentage point over three years, CNY2 trillion would be added to state
revenues, opening up opportunities for tax cuts.
     --Trade disputes have had only limited impact as of now, although some
international companies are relocating operations to other counties as tariffs
start to impact. Export growth for the year will likely be zero, with imports
down 0.4%, although the trend could see the current account move into deficit,
pressuring the yuan and triggering capital flows.
     --Cuts in taxes and fees should focus on private investment to help boost
confidence levels in the slowing economy, including targeted cuts on investments
such as R&D. Beijing should consider forming a 'bad bank' to deal with NPLs
coming from private corporate mergers and reorganisations.
     --There is a need for some fiscal restraint in H2 as tax cuts and increased
pushed the deficit higher. That means monetary policy must provide ample
liquidity, keeping rates low and helping support local government bond issuance.
Both consumer and producer prices are set to remain and low levels this year,
with CPI seen at 2.3% and producer prices at 0.2%. The authorities must take
measures to prevent the gap between the two from expanding further rand hitting
industrial profits.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MC$$$$,MI$$$$,MT$$$$,MGQ$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.