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Free AccessMNI POLICY: Congress Likely to Reject WTO Withdrawal Bill
--Lawmakers Push Decoupling Amid Upturn in China Trade Discord
By Ryan Hauser
WASHINGTON (MNI) - Republican lawmakers showed renewed interest for
legislation pushing the economic decoupling of U.S.-China relations despite a
more upbeat call between trade officials on Thursday.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Thursday he expects
Congress will soon work to pass bipartisan legislation calling on the Trump
Administration "to use targeted sanctions against those responsible for the
repression" of China's Muslim minority groups.
That same day, junior United States Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO), introduced
a joint resolution to the House and Senate calling for the U.S. to leave the
World Trade Organization, a proposal that is unlikely to succeed, former WTO
officials told MNI.
Despite rising pressure in Congress, top trade negotiators from both
countries late Thursday pledged to make progress implementing the Phase One
trade deal and the Commerce Department was reportedly close to signing off on a
rule change that would slightly ease export controls on Huawei by allowing U.S.
companies to work more closely with the Chinese company on 5G standard-setting.
--WTO WITHDRAWL UNLIKELY
Senator Hawley "is trying to do what Trump and Lighthizer have threatened
to do in the past," but Congress "won't act on it because doing so would create
more economic disruption while we're in the middle of the biggest economic
crisis since the Great Depression," Peterson Institute senior fellow Jeffrey
Schott told MNI. The resolution does, however, "put pressure on other WTO
members to accept US demands for WTO reforms, especially in the area of dispute
settlement," he said.
"US withdrawal seems very unlikely," said Simon Lester, a former legal
officer for the WTO appellate body. "In past votes, withdrawal was rejected by
wide margins" in Congress, and "there doesn't seem to be any momentum for
withdrawal this time either," he told MNI.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley's office said that it
"agrees with the Trump administration that the World Trade Organization is in
need of reform" but added that "withdrawing from the WTO would only leave a
vacuum for China to fill and diminish America's position of strength."
Earlier this week, Hawley's op-ed in the New York Times proposed abolishing
the WTO, which he said diminishes American economic vitality while empowering
China. But all the U.S. can do, however, is withdraw, and "it's virtually
certain that the other 163 members would continue on without us," said National
Foreign Trade Council President Rufus Yerxa, a former diplomat with the WTO and
USTR.
The effects of a possible WTO exit would be disastrous, Yerxa told MNI. "In
practical terms," he said, "we'd leave China, Europe and others in charge of
rewriting WTO rules without us," and remaining countries "would all be free to
raise discriminatory barriers against us and make us the odd man out in world
trade."
"Of course the WTO needs to better address China's worst behaviors," said
Yerxa, adding that Hawley "should push for reform instead of advocating
abolishment."
"You don't burn down your house just because a few rooms need renovating,"
said Yerxa.
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MI$$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.