MNI POLICY: ECB to Launch Market Policy Expectations Survey

By Luke Heighton

     FRANKFURT (MNI) - The ECB is to launch a survey of market participants'

expectations in key policy areas, it announced Wednesday.

     A pilot version of the new Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) will be

launched shortly before national central bank governors assemble in Frankfurt in

April 2019. It will be run eight times per year ahead of each Governing Council

meeting.

     The aim of the survey is to "gather regular, comprehensive, structured and

systematic information on market participants' expectations of the future

evolution of key policy parameters," an ECB Press Release stated.

     The results of the survey are expected to complement market data, existing

ECB surveys and macroeconomic and credit surveys already conducted by national

central banks.

     Questions will cover only those monetary measures already officially

announced. Eurosystem staff hope the SMA will provide ECB staff with greater

insight into the degree to which markets have understood existing policy

measures.

     Policymakers will not be involved in formulating the questionnaire, which

will be limited to macroeconomic developments, including standard and

non-standard monetary policy measures - and there will be no multiple-answer

questions.

     It is envisaged that the first set of results will be made public after

seven rounds of Governing Council Meetings, in early 2020.

     The ECB does not anticipate that the survey will send signals to the

markets, since it will be standardized - although some evolution is expected

during pilot phase. Nor does the ECB believe collusion between survey

participants is likely.

     Participants will be chosen from the ECBs existing Market Contact Groups

based on "market relevance, geographical representativeness, commitment to

participating regularly in subsequent rounds [...]" and "active involvement in

the areas covered by the survey."

     Details of the first panel's composition and the pilot round questionnaire

will be published "in due course."

--MNI Frankfurt Bureau; +49-69-720-146; email: luke.heighton@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]