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By Luke Heighton
     FRANKFURT (MNI) - The ECB is to launch a survey of market participants'
expectations in key policy areas, it announced Wednesday.
     A pilot version of the new Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) will be
launched shortly before national central bank governors assemble in Frankfurt in
April 2019. It will be run eight times per year ahead of each Governing Council
     The aim of the survey is to "gather regular, comprehensive, structured and
systematic information on market participants' expectations of the future
evolution of key policy parameters," an ECB Press Release stated.
     The results of the survey are expected to complement market data, existing
ECB surveys and macroeconomic and credit surveys already conducted by national
central banks.
     Questions will cover only those monetary measures already officially
announced. Eurosystem staff hope the SMA will provide ECB staff with greater
insight into the degree to which markets have understood existing policy
     Policymakers will not be involved in formulating the questionnaire, which
will be limited to macroeconomic developments, including standard and
non-standard monetary policy measures - and there will be no multiple-answer
     It is envisaged that the first set of results will be made public after
seven rounds of Governing Council Meetings, in early 2020.
     The ECB does not anticipate that the survey will send signals to the
markets, since it will be standardized - although some evolution is expected
during pilot phase. Nor does the ECB believe collusion between survey
participants is likely.
     Participants will be chosen from the ECBs existing Market Contact Groups
based on "market relevance, geographical representativeness, commitment to
participating regularly in subsequent rounds [...]" and "active involvement in
the areas covered by the survey."
     Details of the first panel's composition and the pilot round questionnaire
will be published "in due course."
--MNI Frankfurt Bureau; +49-69-720-146; email:
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]