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Free AccessMNI POLICY: NY Fed Survey Shows Consumer Expectations Steady
U.S. consumer views of spending, household income and labor market expectations remained flat in August at weak levels relative to the pre-coronavirus period, according to the New York Federal Reserve's latest consumer survey.
Median household spending growth expectations remained steady at 3.0% in August, below its 2019 average of 3.2%.
The mean expectation that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher in a year dipped slightly in August to 39.1% after rising in July to 39.3%. The series high of 50.9% was reached in March.
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
At the three-year horizon median inflation expectations similarly increased to 3.0% from 2.7%. At both time horizons the increase was driven by respondents below age 40.
Median inflation uncertainty, or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes, increased for the second consecutive month at both horizons and remains elevated relative to pre-coronavirus readings.
FINANCIAL SITUATION
The Internet-based survey with a rotating panel of 1,300 households also showed the average probability of missing a future minimum debt payment increased slightly to 9.7% in August from last month series low of 9.5%. This new reading remains well below its 2019 average of 11.5%.
Perceptions about households' current financial situations compared to a year ago improved slightly, with more respondents reporting being better off. Similarly, one-year ahead expectations about households' financial situations also improved with more respondents expecting their financial situation to improve.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.