MNI POLICY: Trade Talks Unlikely To Stop Tariffs: Advisors

By Iris Ouyang

     BEIJING (MNI) - Veteran experts advising the Chinese government have told

MNI that this week's planned low-level China-U.S. trade talks are unlikely to

forestall the mutual imposition of tariffs on a further $16 billion of exports,

scheduled to come into effect on Thursday.

     "Just like an arrow on the bowstring, it's very hard to stop the tariffs

from taking effect," said Wang Haifeng, who advises the National Development and

Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planning body.

     Wang added that the mutual impositions of 25% tariffs on $16 billion of

respective exports, announced by both China and the U.S. at the beginning of

August, are already underway in administrative terms.

     "There will not be a quick result from the China-U.S. talks," scheduled to

take place in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday, cautioned Wang, who is also

the director of international trade and investment at the NDRC's Institute for

International Economic Research.

     "Even though both sides can take measures to stop the tariffs from being

implemented, they may not do so due to various reasons," Wang added. One such

reason from the White House's point of view is to avoid potential criticism from

the U.S. Congress following any sudden backing down.

     In a separate interview with MNI, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese

Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under China's Ministry

of Commerce, also dismissed the possibility of the trade talks putting a stop to

the imposition of the next round of tariffs.

     "The most value that can be gained from these trade talks is to prevent a

collapse of China-U.S. relations," Mei told MNI, adding that "both sides are

merely trying to resume communication." He also noted that neither China or the

U.S. is interested in rushing to get quick results. Rather, both sides are

testing each other's patience amid increased domestic pressure from citizens.

     Indeed, MNI's sources suggest that there is strong domestic support in both

China and the U.S. for maintaining a firm stance in the trade dispute, which is

adding pressure on the Chinese and U.S. governments not to appear weak.

Moreover, political -- rather than economic -- factors are currently believed to

be playing a more significant role in the trade negotiations.

     "Unlike Trump's other policies, which the American public largely tends to

disagree with, his hard stance on trade against China enjoys relatively broad

support," Wang commented. Meanwhile, if China's representatives show any

softness in the talks, this will likely generate criticism from the Chinese

public, he added.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 207-862-7489; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

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