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MNI POLICY: Trade Talks Unlikely To Stop Tariffs: Advisors

By Iris Ouyang
     BEIJING (MNI) - Veteran experts advising the Chinese government have told
MNI that this week's planned low-level China-U.S. trade talks are unlikely to
forestall the mutual imposition of tariffs on a further $16 billion of exports,
scheduled to come into effect on Thursday.
     "Just like an arrow on the bowstring, it's very hard to stop the tariffs
from taking effect," said Wang Haifeng, who advises the National Development and
Reform Commission (NDRC), China's top economic planning body.
     Wang added that the mutual impositions of 25% tariffs on $16 billion of
respective exports, announced by both China and the U.S. at the beginning of
August, are already underway in administrative terms.
     "There will not be a quick result from the China-U.S. talks," scheduled to
take place in Washington on Wednesday and Thursday, cautioned Wang, who is also
the director of international trade and investment at the NDRC's Institute for
International Economic Research.
     "Even though both sides can take measures to stop the tariffs from being
implemented, they may not do so due to various reasons," Wang added. One such
reason from the White House's point of view is to avoid potential criticism from
the U.S. Congress following any sudden backing down.
     In a separate interview with MNI, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Chinese
Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under China's Ministry
of Commerce, also dismissed the possibility of the trade talks putting a stop to
the imposition of the next round of tariffs.
     "The most value that can be gained from these trade talks is to prevent a
collapse of China-U.S. relations," Mei told MNI, adding that "both sides are
merely trying to resume communication." He also noted that neither China or the
U.S. is interested in rushing to get quick results. Rather, both sides are
testing each other's patience amid increased domestic pressure from citizens.
     Indeed, MNI's sources suggest that there is strong domestic support in both
China and the U.S. for maintaining a firm stance in the trade dispute, which is
adding pressure on the Chinese and U.S. governments not to appear weak.
Moreover, political -- rather than economic -- factors are currently believed to
be playing a more significant role in the trade negotiations.
     "Unlike Trump's other policies, which the American public largely tends to
disagree with, his hard stance on trade against China enjoys relatively broad
support," Wang commented. Meanwhile, if China's representatives show any
softness in the talks, this will likely generate criticism from the Chinese
public, he added.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: iris.ouyang@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 207-862-7489; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MGQ$$$]

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