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Free AccessMNI POLICY: US Household Inflation Expectations Hit 7 Yr High
U.S. household inflation expectations ticked up again in March reaching the highest level in almost seven years, a New York Federal Reserve survey showed Monday, with expectations for price increases for homes, rent and gas reaching series highs.
The median inflation outlook for the next year and three years ahead both increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%, continuing a run of steady increases over the past five months and reaching highs last seen in mid-2014.
The survey showed consumers disagreed less over the path of year-ahead inflation compared to the prior month, though disagreement remains elevated relative to pre-pandemic numbers.
Consumers' median year-ahead home price change expectations was at a new series high, increasing by 0.8 pp to 4.8%, driven by Americans in the West and Midwest. Expectations of gas prices increased 0.3 pp to 9.9% and rent expectations increased 0.2 pp to 9.3%, both a new series high.
SPENDING OUTLOOK
Views on how household spending might change over the next year increased increased for the third consecutive month to 4.7%, the highest reading since December 2014.
Labor market expectations continued to recover with higher expectations about job security and improved unemployment expectations. The Fed report showed the median expected growth in household income increased by 0.4 pp to 2.8% in March, the highest level since January of last year.
The Fed's survey of consumer expectations is a monthly poll conducted on a rotating panel of 1,300 households.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.