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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Iran’s Snap Presidential Election

IRAN
  • On June 28, the Islamic Republican of Iran will hold a snap presidential election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19.
  • The election comes amid an increasingly volatile geopolitical backdrop. Relations between Iran and the West have experienced multiple flashpoints since former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2017.
  • Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has enhanced relations with Russia and pivoted into closer alignment with China through the admission into the BRICS bloc.
  • Iran’s network of militant proxy groups in the region, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, have been brought into sharp focus by the war been Israel and Hamas. Culminating in the first-ever direct Iranian attack on Israel on April 13. Iran has also accelerated its nuclear programme, becoming a so-called nuclear threshold state.
  • Although polling points toward a victory from either the hardline candidate, Saeed Jalili, or conservative, Mohammad Qalibaf, moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian's surprise inclusion on the ballot offers a credible pathway for a reformist win.
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  • On June 28, the Islamic Republican of Iran will hold a snap presidential election following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19.
  • The election comes amid an increasingly volatile geopolitical backdrop. Relations between Iran and the West have experienced multiple flashpoints since former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2017.
  • Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has enhanced relations with Russia and pivoted into closer alignment with China through the admission into the BRICS bloc.
  • Iran’s network of militant proxy groups in the region, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, have been brought into sharp focus by the war been Israel and Hamas. Culminating in the first-ever direct Iranian attack on Israel on April 13. Iran has also accelerated its nuclear programme, becoming a so-called nuclear threshold state.
  • Although polling points toward a victory from either the hardline candidate, Saeed Jalili, or conservative, Mohammad Qalibaf, moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian's surprise inclusion on the ballot offers a credible pathway for a reformist win.