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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Ireland Election Preview

Voters head to polls on 29 Nov with Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, and Sinn Fein neck-and-neck. Coalition talks to prove key
CEEMEAEurozoneStoryPolitical RiskIreland

Voters in Ireland go to the polls on Friday 29 November in an election that has been low on drama during the campaign but could throw up some surprises come the announcement of results. The most likely outcome is a continuation of the current governing coalition, at least involving the two largest parties that sit in government presently. However, the vagaries of the Irish electoral system and increasing public discontent with a tight housing market and immigration levels could result in some unexpected coalition partners. 

In this Election Preview, we give an explainer on how the Irish electoral system works, a run-down of the main political parties, charts of the latest opinion polling, and a post-election scenario analysis involving assigned probabilities for various coalition options.

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Voters in Ireland go to the polls on Friday 29 November in an election that has been low on drama during the campaign but could throw up some surprises come the announcement of results. The most likely outcome is a continuation of the current governing coalition, at least involving the two largest parties that sit in government presently. However, the vagaries of the Irish electoral system and increasing public discontent with a tight housing market and immigration levels could result in some unexpected coalition partners. 

In this Election Preview, we give an explainer on how the Irish electoral system works, a run-down of the main political parties, charts of the latest opinion polling, and a post-election scenario analysis involving assigned probabilities for various coalition options.

Keep reading...Show less