Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Israeli voters go to the polling stations today for the fourth time in two years as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political career hangs in the balance. Opinion polls show a deeply fragmented electorate and give no clear signal over whether Netanyahu's right-wing Likud Party and its allies will be able to put together a majority coalition after the election. On the other side of the political divide there are a large number of parties from across the political spectrum that have ruled out working with Netanyahu and have said they will not work in a government alongside him. However, given the disparate ideological views of these parties, the prospect of a broad anti-Netanyahu governing coalition being formed is also slim. As such, there is the notable likelihood that the March election will not be the only vote required in 2021.
The election is being fought under the cloud of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as an ongoing corruption trial of PM Netanyahu. The pandemic, which has seen Israel with one of the highest deaths per 100k/population from COVID-19 worldwide but also the fastest vaccination programme globally, makes the outcome of the election particularly hard to call.
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Israel Election Preview.pdf
Main Takeaways:
- The most likely outcome from today's election is even more political uncertainty. The path to a stable majority coalition government is filled with obstacles, and lengthy talks on forming a new administration are likely.
- Even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party's allies are unable to hold onto power, there is unlikely to be a significant shift on Israel's foreign and security policy in the region. The political centre ground on issues such as Iran and the two-state solution has shifted to the right in recent years, meaning in almost any outcome tensions with Tehran will remain escalated and there will be little prospect of progress on Palestinian relations.
- Should Netanyahu retain power, the government could pursue an extremely hardline religious conservative policy agenda, risking relations with a new more socially liberal administration in the US.
- Full results will take several days to filter through due to the complex electoral system and COVID-19 restrictions. Given how close polls show the election, each seat is likely to prove crucial.
Source: Midgam, Direct Polls, Panels Politics, Smith, Maagar Mohot, Camil Fuchs, Kantar, Geocartographica, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.