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Voters in Canada’s most populous province, Ontario, go to the polls on Thursday 2 June to elect their next legislative assembly. The Ontario vote is the most closely scrutinised in Canada outside of federal elections, given that the province is often the swing factor when it comes to electing the national prime minister.

Premier Doug Ford’s centre-right Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PCPO) is seeking a second consecutive term in office, with the main opposition left-wing Ontario New Democratic Party (ONDP) working to retain its position, while the centre-left Ontario Liberal Party looks to recover from a poor election in 2018 that saw the party fall from first to third place.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Ontario Election Briefing.pdf

Chart 1. Seat Projection for Ontario Legislature Based On Aggregate Opinion Polling

Source:, MNI

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