MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 01-02-22

Executive Summary:

• Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has one of the most challenging months of his stewardship ahead of him. If the Democrats are going to have a chance of success in November's midterms Schumer will have to have an exceptional month in the Senate.
• Lawmakers have until Feb. 18 to come to an agreement for fiscal year 2022. The government is currently operating under a temporary funding provision and, although the government won’t shut down, if there is another stopgap the Democrats will blow an opportunity to influence Federal budgets while in control of Congress.
• The Supreme Court vacancy is a potential winner for Schumer but it does not come without complications. Yesterday, Jen Psaki was probed on the President’s response to the ABC News/Ipsos poll which found that most Americans disapproved of Biden’s pledge to nominate a Black woman. The response: Biden will honour his pledge but there will be no compromise on credentials and experience.
• The House is close to a vote on the China competitiveness bill. The GOP is irritated that the bill has been drafted without consultation, but House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is pushing it through despite protests from across the aisle. Schumer hasn’t given a timeline for the Senate, but the national security angle of the bill may be enough to peel off a few Republican votes.
• US Sec of State Antony Blinken and Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will hold a phone call today. They will discuss the recent NATO and US written responses to Russian security concerns and the heated exchanges at the UN Security Council meeting yesterday. Russia has demanded that the West provide proof that Russia is mobilising for an invasion of Ukraine.
• Qatar has been designated a major non-NATO ally in a shrew move to influence Middle Eastern politics and increase energy security.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 01-02-22 .pdf