MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 01-06-22

Executive Summary:

• US officials believe that Russia is taking steps to institutionalise control over Eastern Ukraine. ‘The Kremlin is probably weighing a few approaches: from recognising a so-called ‘people’s republic’ as Russia forcibly did in Donetsk and Luhansk, to an attempted annexation just as Russia did in Crimea.'
• State Department spokesperson Ned Price: ‘Russia’s initial objectives of controlling large swaths of Ukraine has been nothing short of a complete failure.’
• A number of reports this week have suggested that there may be a communication problem in the White House: ‘Beyond policy, Biden is unhappy about a pattern that has developed inside the West Wing. He makes a clear and succinct statement — only to have aides rush to explain that he actually meant something else.'
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will begin a series of talks in Washington today to discuss Turkey's opposition to the NATO membership bids of Sweden and Finland.
• The US and China continue their war of words over the Pacific. A US official said yesterday that Pacific Island nations were unwilling to sign up to China’s security arrangement due to concerns about the ‘shadowy’ and ‘opaque’ nature of the proposal.
• Today, there have been reports that US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe may hold their first bilateral meeting on the side-lines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The meeting could assist in cooling tensions between Beijing and Washington and Austin hinted at the importance of such a meeting last week.
• Poll of the Day: The invasion of Ukraine has significantly damaged Russia’s global reputation. Italy has shown the most significant drop in ‘favourable view’ of Russia: plummeting from +5 to -63.

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