MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 02-02-22

Executive Summary:

• Democrats have confirmed that Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) was hospitalized after suffering a stroke last week. The Senator received surgery and is expected to make a full recovery but a prolonged absence from the Senate would be a disaster for the Democrats' legislative agenda. There is a packed Senate schedule planned for the next month and the Democrats agenda cannot move without their full 50 votes. The Supreme Court confirmation and Russia Sanctions bill could be affected.
• The Kremlin yesterday said: ‘The document [in response to Russian security concerns] contains no positive response on the main issue [NATO expansion] but elements could lead to the start of a serious talk on secondary issues.’ This is the most positive sign yet that Moscow may be willing to identify a minor concession from the West as a victory in the stand-off. This is currently the most probable offramp.
• It had looked like the JCPOA Iranian nuclear talks were on the brink of achieving a positive result but yesterday the US appeared to take a step away from a deal. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voiced concerns on the Senate floor.
• There is still a lack of coordination on the Republican SCOTUS strategy. Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) said that a high-profile battle against a SCOTUS nominee could be counterproductive to their messaging but Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) said: 'I want a nominee who’s not going to try to rewrite the Constitution every other Thursday to try to advance a ‘woke agenda.’'

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 02-02-22 .pdf