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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - US Daily Brief 03-04-23

Executive Summary:

  • Former President Donald Trump is expected to arrive in New York City today ahead of surrendering to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg tomorrow on charges related to the alleged payment of hush-money to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
  • US officials have been broadsided by an OPEC+ decision to further cut oil production.
  • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with European Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager on Friday to discuss the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act following a Treasury Department guidance which appeared to open the door for allies to access IRA incentives.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has held a rare call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to urge the “immediate release” of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich.
  • Centrist Democrat Senator Joe Machin (D-WV) has refused to rule out a 2024 presidential run, or changing his political affiliation to Republican.
  • Former Governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson is the first prominent Republican to stick his head above the parapet and announce an intention to run for president in 2024 on an anti-Trump platform.
  • The United States Trade Representative has struck an agreement with Japan to significantly increase the purchase of US biofuels.
  • Poll of the Day: Trump's indictment may increase his chances of winning the 2024 GOP nomination.

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