MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 10-03-22

Executive Summary:

• A diplomatic summit between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Tukey has failed to deliver substantive progress towards a ceasefire. Lavrov stated that ceasefire talks will continue to take place in Belarus according to the format which has engaged in three rounds of talks so far.
• Lavrov restated an unsubstantiated accusation that Ukraine is working with the United States to develop chemical or biological weapons. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said the claims are ‘absurd’ and ‘laughable'. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki went further, suggesting that Russia may be intending to use claims to escalate the conflict.
• This morning there have been mixed messages on yesterday’s statements from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UAE Ambassador to the US Yousef Al Otaibi. Otaibi said he was in favour of an UAE oil production increase and will be encouraging other OPEC members to consider higher output. Today UAE Minister for Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei said the UAE is 'committed to the “OPEC+” agreement and its current mechanism for adjusting monthly production'.
• The House of Representatives passed a USD$1.5 trillion government funding omnibus late last night. The bill passed in two pieces: The military and homeland security spending passed 361 to 69. The domestic spending passed 260 to 171. It was a win for the GOP. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was forced to scrap Covid-19 relief funding at the last minute.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 10-03-22 .pdf