MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 18-02-22

Executive summary:

• Russia and the West remain in an uneasy standoff over Ukraine. There have been continued unsubstantiated reports of an uptick in ceasefire violations in the separatist controlled east of Ukraine and NATO members have coalesced around a coordinated diplomatic response which demands Russia demonstrate a demobilisation.
• Secretary of State Blinken spoke at the UN Security Council yesterday continuing the US strategy of deterrence through pre-empting Russian pretexts for invasion.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will be concerned by the level of military and diplomatic support NATO has demonstrated towards Ukraine since perceived concessions by Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron last week. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s words: ‘I have never seen NATO more relevant than today. Putin doesn't want NATO on his Western flank but he is getting exactly that’ will be particularly frustrating to Putin who may have miscalculated European apathy for NATO.
• Yesterday the Senate passed a continuing resolution (65-27) to keep the government funded through March 11. The Senate earlier in the afternoon voted to invoke cloture (65-30) on the motion and three GOP amendments failed to pass due to Republican absences. Now Congressional leaders must come to an agreement on topline spending. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Democrats on the Appropriations Committee have said that a framework has been largely agreed upon.
• The US domestic response to the JCPOA talks in Vienna is ever more complicated with more than 160 House Republicans threatening to torpedo a deal. The GOP has said that any agreement struck without congressional approval would be overturned if Republicans retake the White House. With a deal in Vienna looking so close the US domestic response may fundamentally undermine the diplomatic process.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 18-02-22 .pdf