MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 26-01-22

Executive Summary:

14:00ET 19:00GMT – Federal Reserve policy statement.

14:30ET 19:30GMT – Jerome Powell news conference.

• The Democrats are trying to find a bicameral compromise on the America COMPETES Act of 2022. This is the bill which will (according to Democrats) make transformational new investments in research, innovation and American manufacturing that will ensure that America can outcompete any nation in the world, now and for decades to come.
• The Democrat view is that the ongoing global semiconductor chip crisis is one of the primary drivers of inflation. In their opinion, this bill would address the chip crisis by developing domestic chip production and relieving dependency on China.
• The GOP is coalescing around a hawkish position on Ukraine. First on the Republican wish-list is a raft of immediate sanctions. Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee spoke yesterday outlining the GOP’s Ukraine strategy.
• The White House is considering punitive sanctions which can be applied to Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration hasn’t been specific about which sanctions it intends to enforce but some options available to Biden are outlined inside.

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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily Brief 26-01-22 .pdf