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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Electoral College Projections:
- PredictIt, which uses betting market data to project an electoral college outcome, has Biden set to win, but with 26 electoral college votes (AZ, NC) in the 'tilt Biden' category, should Trump win those states it would leave him just nine EC votes short of 270.
Betting Probabilities:
- The resumption in betting on the presidential election following Trump's recovery from COVID-19 has seen the implied probability of a Trump win climb in recent days, but still remain below the level he achieved before his hospitalization. On Oct 19 the implied probability of a Trump win stood at 38.9%, from a low of 26.7% during his hospitalization. Biden's implied probability is at 60.4%, from a high of 67.6%.
Swing State Polling:
- Two historically Republican states in the south continue to show extremely close races. In Georgia and Texas the average lead in October polling for the leading candidate is well within the margin of error (usually +/-3%). In Georgia (last Dem 1992) Biden leads by an average of 0.6% in October polls, while in Texas (last Dem 1976), Trump leads by 1.4%.
Nationwide Polling:
- Joe Biden's average lead in nationwide polling in the week between Oct 12 and Oct 19 stood at 10.3%, with the range of Biden leads between 2% in an October 19 IBD poll, and 18% in a Public Religion Research Institute Poll on October 12.
Chart 1. Electoral College Projections
Source: 270toWin, The Economist, 538.com, PredictIt, Princeton Election Consortium, ElectoralVote, JHK Forecasts, RCP, CNN, NPR, Niskanen Center, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, US News & World Report, Politico, Decision Desk HQ, Plural Vote, Our Progress, MNI
Full article PDF attached below:
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Election Polling Chartpack – October 20.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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