MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 June

All timings subject to change.

Monday 14 June:

• NATO: Leaders' summit takes place in Brussels, Belgium – the first such in-person meeting of alliance leaders since the pandemic began. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg due to give a presser at 1615CET (1015ET, 1515BST). Major topics of discussion to include NATO relations with Russia and China, Turkey's relations with Greece and indeed other NATO allies, and potential replacements for Stoltenberg, who steps down next year. US President Joe Biden is also likely to use the event to 'clear the slate' with regards to US attitudes to NATO following a frosty four years under former President Donald Trump. Link to livestream of proceeding scan be found here.
• United Kingdom: Prime Minister Boris Johnson to deliver a press conference at 1800BST (1300ET, 1900CET) on the state of the pandemic in the country. He is expected to announce around a four-week delay to the full removal of restrictions in England, which were due to take place no earlier than 21 June. The likely delay is due to a spike in cases due to the spread of the Delta variant (previously known as the 'Indian variant') of COVID-19, which has seen new cases spike and hospitalisations tick up (although to a much lesser extent than in previous waves of infection.
• European Union-Canada: 18^th EU-Canada summit takes place in Brussels, with Commission and Council presidents Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel hold talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Discussions are set to focus on the recovery from COVID-19, climate change, and trade relations. Following the summit a joint statement is due to be adopted by both sides.
• United States:House of Representatives returns to Washington, D.C. after a three-week break amid escalating debates among Congressional Democrats over how to get the White House's multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package approved. Some moderate Democratic senators continue calls for a bipartisan deal involving Democrat and GOP figures, but the leftist wing of House Democrats have voiced anger at the slow nature of progress. There also remains the issue that a bipartisan deal agreed in the Senate may be rejected by the narrow Democrat majority in the House.
• European Union:European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni due to deliver an address to a conference in Dublin hosted by the Institute of International and European Affairs regarding efforts to reach a global deal on corporate tax announced last week following talks between G7 finance ministers. Due to speak at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400BST).
• United Kingdom (Northern Ireland):First Minister Arlene Foster to officially step down from office at 1300BST following her ouster as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party in the spring. DUP MLA Paul Givan is set to be nominated to succeed Foster, having gained the backing of new DUP leader Edwin Poots. The DUP under Poots is expected to take a more hard-line stance on the Northern Ireland protocol in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and could see a further deterioration in relations between unionist/loyalist communities in Northern Ireland and the UK government.
• Australia: Public holiday in all states (ex. Queensland, W Australia) for the Queen's Birthday.
• China, Hong Kong, Taiwan:Public holiday for Dragon Boat Festival.
• Russia:Public holiday for Russia Day.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 14-20 June.pdf