MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Week Ahead 15-21 August

Executive Summary

Monday 15 August:

• US-China: A second US Congressional Delegation (CODEL) visit to Taiwan in August has sparked another round of Chinese military drills off the coast of the island. The five-strong delegation, led by Senator Ed Markey (D-CA) includes four Democrats and one Republican. They will meet with President Tsai Ing-wen as part of the unannounced two-day visit. Beijing severely criticised the visit, stating that "Members of the US Congress should act in consistence with the US government's one-China policy."
• Indo-Pacific: The US and Indonesia conclude the Super Garuda Shield 2022 military exercises, held over the latter’s Sumatra and Riau islands over the past two weeks. The drills have included forces from Japan, Australia, and Singapore, and the largely amphibious exercises were the largest since the Garuda Shield drills began in 2007. Comes months after Jakarta and Beijing saw an uptick in tensions amid disputes over territorial waters. US continues to try to draw Indonesia towards the pro-democratic alliance in the region, but President Joko Widodo maintains broad balance between Washington, D.C. and Beijing.
• Iran:15 August marks the unofficial deadline for Tehran to accept or reject a final draft text from the European Union for a renewed nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPoA). The chances of Iran accepting the deal are seen as being on a knife-edge, with Brussels and European signatories pressing for a deal, but Tehran and Washington, D.C seen as less concerned about reaching an agreement swiftly.
• Nordics:Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre hosts his fellow Nordic heads of government in Oslo, as well as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The leaders are due to discuss issues including the “security policy situation in Europe and relations with Russia, the new security policy situation in the Nordic region with Sweden and Finland in NATO, cooperation in Northern Europe on the green transition, and energy security” according to the Norwegian government. A bilateral between Støre and Scholz will then focus on “the war in Ukraine, European solidarity and cooperation, and German-Norwegian cooperation on energy security and green industrial development”. Presser with Nordic PM’s and Scholz takes place 1715CET (1115ET, 1615BST).
  

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Week Ahead 15-21 August.pdf