MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 15-21 Nov

All timings subject to change.

Monday 15 November:

• United States-China: US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to hold a virtual meeting on Monday at 1945ET/0845CST on Tuesday. The leaders have so far held two phone conversations since Biden's inauguration in January, but this meeting will be the most wide-ranging in subject matter to date. Issues around trade and climate change are likely to feature heavily. Biden expected to push back on Beijing's actions in Xinjiang province, Hong Kong, and around Taiwan, but little progress expected in any of these areas. Xi likely to criticise US military activities in the Pacific and the creation of the AUKUS alliance, which China views as a direct threat to its interests in the Indo-Pacific.
• United States:At 1500ET, President Biden will sign into law the USD1trn Bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the first of two major social spending bills the White House is looking to pass in the coming weeks. Focus then turns to Congress. The Congressional Budget Office is set to deliver its scores on the multi-trillion dollar Build Back Better bill, which Democratic leaders want to see passed as soon as possible. The House of Representatives set take up consideration of the bill this week (no set date for this yet) and looking to have it passed by Friday. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer set to meet with Senate parliamentarian in order to determine how the BBB bill could be passed via reconciliation.
• European Union-Switzerland: Commission Vice President Maroš Šefčovič meets with Swiss Foreign Minister Ignzeio Cassis as both sides seek to restart talks on an institutional agreement between the two. The Swiss walked out on talks that had been going on for seven years in May, citing EU demands on state aid and freedom of movement that Bern said were unacceptable. The EU wants to replace the hundreds of bilateral deals in place at present with a broader overarching deal with Switzerland.
• United Kingdom:The government could face a difficult end to the parliamentary day, with the Committee on Standards (motion) – relating into the report into the actions of now-resigned Conservative MP Owen Paterson – due to be debated. The Paterson report has seen a major scandal erupt over alleged sleaze and corruption within parliament, primarily directed at PM Boris Johnson's Conservative party. Opinion polling shows a sharp drop-in support for Johnson's party just as the scandal has erupted, and further debate on the issue in the Commons could keep it on the front pages for longer.
• Turkey-Iran: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu visits Tehran for talks with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The meeting comes as Iran faces increasing pressure from the West to re-engage in talks in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear deal. Turkey and Iran. Turkey-Iran relations have historically proved rocky, but both sides are expected to sign a long-term cooperation agreement following today's meetings.
• Cuba:There is the potential for Cuba to see mass protests against repressive government actions and in favour of the democratisation of the island. The communist government has banned any protest taking place, but with COVID-19 restrictions lifted as of today and children returning to school, the regime could see large numbers take to the streets. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has warned the government not to crush the protesters.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 15-21 Nov.pdf