MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 21-27 March

All timings subject to change.

Monday 21 March:

• Security: US President Joe Biden set to hold a call with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian PM Mario Draghi, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to discuss the situation in Ukraine. Call due at 1200ET/1600GMT/1700CET, and is in advance of Biden’s visit to Brussels this week for the NATO, EU and G7 leaders’ summits.
• Russia-Ukraine: Negotiations set to continue online between teams from Kyiv and Moscow on reaching a ceasefire. At present there appears to be little shared ground for both sides to come to an agreement, although Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has stated that he believes the two sides are ‘close to an agreement’. Israeli PM Naftali Bennett sounded less enthusiastic, stating that “There is rapprochement between the parties, But there are key issues that are still controversial but there is still a long way to go,”
• European Union: Meeting of Foreign Affairs Council in both its regular and defence formats takes place involving foreign and defence ministers from member states. Main topic of discussion set to be the war in Ukraine and the EU’s stance. Moldova’s Minister for Foreign Affairs and European Integration Nicu Popescu also in attendance. Enlarged format with all foreign and defence ministers set to discuss the EU’s ‘Strategic Compass’, the bloc’s 5-10 year plan for providing EU security and defence.
• United States:Senate confirmation hearing for Ketanji Brown Jackson to succeed Stephen Breyer on the US Supreme Court bench gets underway at 1100ET (1500GMT, 1600CET). Jackson appears in front of the 22-member Senate Judiciary Committee, with opening statements today and the hearing set to be concluded by Thursday. The Committee will then vote on whether to advance her nomination to a full Senate hearing. Jackson likely to be confirmed given strong support from Democrats and potential backing from moderate Republicans.
• France-Spain: French President Emmanuel Macron hosts Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez at the Elysee Palace. Statements expected upon Sanchez’s arrival around 1430CET (0930ET, 1330GMT). Following meetings with southern EU counterparts, Sanchez is attempting to drum up support for a energy reform package to help control prices in the bloc. Sanchez then goes onto Brussels for talks with Belgian PM Alexander de Croo and EUCO President Charles Michel.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 21-27 March.pdf