MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 24-30 Jan

Executive Summary:

Monday 24 January:

• Italy: Election process begins to decide who will succeed Sergio Mattarella as Italian president. Frontrunner is current PM Mario Draghi. Should Draghi be elected to the presidency it risks power vacuum at the top of his broad but unstable technocratic government. Election is carried out among 1,007 deputies, senators, and regional representatives, and is expected to last for several days amidst backroom deals and horse trading over potential candidates.
• European Union:Foreign Affairs Council meeting takes place in Brussels. The ongoing risk of war in Ukraine will be the main issue of discussion for EU foreign ministers, with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken joining via videolink for the discussion. Minsters expected to formulate a joint statement and a plan for sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion. However, major disagreement expected on language of statement and severity of sanctions in different invasion scenarios.
• EU-UK: European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič hosts UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss in Brussels for negotiations intended to reach a deal over the Northern Ireland Protocol. Although relations between the two sides have improved since Truss took over the lead from former Cabinet Office minister Lord Frost, significant differences remain between the two sides. Time is running out for a deal, with Šefčovič keen to end discussions before any campaigning begins for the May Northern Ireland Assembly elections.
• NATO:Maritime drills set to get underway in the Mediterranean Sea to show off NATO’s naval capabilities. The ‘Neptune Strike ‘22’ exercise comes as NATO releases a statement confirming that its allies’ forces in eastern Europe have been put on standby and that more NATO members are sending ships and/or jets to the region. Exercise scheduled to continue to 4 February. Sec-Gen Stoltenberg also meets with foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland. There has been speculation that both nations could seek to join NATO in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• United States:Senate and House out of session this week. House Democratic leadership is expected to unveil their version of the Senate-passed US Innovation and Competition Act (USICA), which intends to bring more high-tech research and manufacturing (notably semiconductors and microchips) to US soil. No set date for its submission, but the White House is seeking a swift ‘win’ after a series of humbling legislative defeats.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 24-30 Jan.pdf