MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 24-30 May

All timings subject to change. Editor's note: The next MNI Political Risk Week Ahead will be published on Monday 7 June.

Monday 24 May:

• European Union: Special meeting of the European Council held in-person in Brussels. Runs through to 25 May. Arrivals on Monday from 1800CET. The meeting is intended to discuss several pressing issues including the response to COVID-19, climate change, EU-UK relations, and external relations (with specific focus on Russia). The hijacking of a Ryanair flight on 23 May by Belarusian KGB agents and its diversion to Minsk to arrest a government dissident is also likely to feature prominently.
• United States:The Senate is due to meet at 1500ET to take up the United States Innovation and Competition Act of 2021, known as the Endless Frontiers Act, which intends to plough more than USD250bn into high- and low-tech investment to counter competition from China. The bill is viewed as a key sign of whether bipartisan passage of legislation is possible, but its approval is not guaranteed, with some Republicans still seeking to make amendments. Vote possible this week. Focus on this bill is likely to deny appropriate time for a vote on the establishment of an independent 6 January Commission to investigate the storming of the Capitol. Without Republican support, it appears unlikely the commission would get the go-ahead.
• Global:The World Health Organisation begins its annual summit, the World Health Assembly. Address by WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus opened the event, while discussion is set to focus on discussions around a recently published independent report looking at the actions taken to combat COVID-19 around the world. Thorny diplomatic issue of Taiwan's continued absence from the WHO also likely to come up, with China staunchly opposed while G7 nations support the island's proposed seat at the table.
• United Kingdom:No set date, but PM Boris Johnson is expected to announce this week whether the planned 21 June date for lifting all COVID-19 restrictions and requirements for social distancing can go ahead in England. This is the final major step in reducing restrictions in England. The spread of the so-called Indian variant of COVID-19 has led to some concern that the date could be pushed back, but promising initial data on vaccine effectiveness could still see the June date adhered to.
• Ecuador:Conservative President-Elect Guillermo Lasso is due to be inaugurated as president following his shock victory in the April election.
• Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands:Public holiday for Whit Monday.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 24-30 May.pdf