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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 27 Jun-3 Jul

All timings subject to change. Editor’s Note: The next Political Risk Week Ahead will be published Monday 11 July.

Monday 27 June:

  • G7: The G7 Leaders’ Summit at the Schloss Elmau in the Bavarian Alps continues. Main focus of 27 June set to be the G7’s response to the war in Ukraine, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joining the group via videolink from Kyiv. Also set to be a series of bilateral discussions between the leaders, as well as sessions on issue such as climate, energy, health, and food security. Leaders of non-G7 nations have been invited to the summit as ‘partner countries’, with the heads of Argentina, India, Indonesia, Senegal, and South Africa set to be in attendance. Continues through to 28 June.
  • United Kingdom: The UK government is due to put forward the Northern Ireland Protocol bill for its second reading in the House of Commons. A statement from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and a short debate on the legislation is seen as likely around 1530BST (1030ET, 1630CET). The bill would unilaterally alter the protocol, much to the chagrin of the EU and its member states. Risks a major deterioration in relations, but unlikely to pass swiftly which could give time for further negotiations on the sensitive topic.
  • NATO:Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg holds a press conference previewing the leaders’ summit taking place from 28 June onwards.
  • European Union:Energy ministers meet in Luxembourg in an attempt to try to reach an agreement on loftier climate change goals and policies, with raising the proportion of renewables in the EU energy mix a major aim as part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. If an agreement is reached, negotiations can get underway with MEPs to draft legislation on the issue.
  • Israel:Preliminary plenum holds a vote on the bills to dissolve the Knesset, bringing about the fifth general election in just over three years. Election seen as likely to take place in November 2022. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid set to serve as caretaker PM until then following rotation with his coalition ally Naftali Bennett. Still no clear signal that a stable majority government can be formed after the election.
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 27 Jun-3 Jul.pdf

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