MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Feb-6 Mar

Executive Summary

Monday 28 February:

• European Union: Informal videoconference of defence ministers takes place at 1230CET (0630ET, 1130GMT) to discuss the invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s next steps. EU says that “ministers will discuss further urgent needs and coordinate EU assistance, including with the help of the clearing house managed by the European Union Military Staff (EUMS).” Comes as EU engages in ‘watershed moment’ of providing EUR500mn in arms and aid to the Ukrainian military. Requires a separate pot of funds given that EU treaties bar using the bloc’s normal budget to fund military/defence operations.
• United States:US Senate is set to receive a classified briefing by leading White House officials regarding the situation in Ukraine. Session due to start at 1915ET. Comes as the White House requests a USD6.4bn emergency assistance package to support Ukraine and bolster the defences of NATO allies in Eastern Europe. Some speculation that a package could be included in a giant government funding deal senators are looking to draft and enact by 11 March to avoid a federal government shutdown.
• European Union: Extraordinary Council meeting of EU energy ministers to discuss the crisis in Ukraine and its impact on EU energy markets. Arrivals from 1400CET, with a presser after the meeting at 1800CET (1200ET, 1700GMT). EU nations have sought to calm markets and populations, stating that they have sufficient resources to deal with the prospect of Russia turning off gas taps.
• Iran:Tehran’s lead negotiator on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal) returns to Vienna following talks with the Raisi government over the weekend with instructions to “resolve outstanding issues causing serious challenges to the deal”. Russia negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov has reiterated his stance that a deal could be done in the next two weeks, but the ongoing war in Ukraine poses major threats to the willingness of the Western JCPoA signatories to work alongside Russia to reach a deal with Iran.
• United Nations: 49^th UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) regular session gets underway in Geneva, Switzerland, continuing to 1 April. Russian invasion of Ukraine set to dominate the early stages of the session, with Ukraine seeking an urgent debate on ‘Russian aggression’ against the country. Motion likely to be approved, with only a simple majority required, with no veto available for Russia. French FM Jean-Yves Le Drian and Chinese FM Wang Yi set to address the session.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Feb-6 Mar.pdf