MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Mar-3 Apr

Executive Summary

All timings subject to change.

Monday 28 March:

• Russia-Ukraine: The latest round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are set to get underway in Turkey this week. There had been some speculation that the discussions could get underway on Monday, but this was rebuffed by the Russian side, which said talks could start later in the week. Comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated over the weekend that Ukraine could discuss its neutral status with Russia, in the first potential signs of a landing ground for a ceasefire deal between the two sides.
• MENA: Historic summit takes place in the Negev Desert, Israel, as the foreign ministers of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, Egypt and the United States meet. Ministers have stated that the meeting will become a common forum between the nations. Arab nations and Israel have a shared concern in the form of the prospect of Iran and the P5+1 reaching a deal on the Iran nuclear deal, while the US is attempting to pressure MENA states to take a more hard-line stance towards Russia regarding the invasion of Ukraine.
• United States:Both the House and Senate are set to vote formally to advance to a conference this week to hash out differences the two chambers have on the America COMPETES Act, a bill intended to enhance American competitiveness with China. Senate locked in to pass its version of the bill again on Monday, setting up House to vote to go into conference committee. Senate then goes into conference. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) have reached a deal to pass the Senate bill involving microchip companies, and USD10bn for NASA.
• France:Country enters official ‘campaign mode’ ahead of the first round of the presidential election on 10 April. Politico outlines the changes this makes to the election campaign: “…new rules on speaking time, campaign posters and video clips in place. From now until April 8, each of the 12 candidates — regardless of their popularity — will get the same amount of speaking time and airtime.” Debate organised by Europe 1 radio, Paris-Match, and JDD takes place at 1800CET. Marine Le Pen, Valerie Pecresse, Yannick Jadot, Anne Hidalgo and Fabien Roussel taking part.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 28 Mar-3 Apr.pdf