MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 31 Jan-6 Feb

Executive Summary

All timings subject to change.

Monday 31 January:

• US-Qatar: Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani travels to Washington, D.C. for a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House. This will be the first meeting between the two since Biden took office. Biden will be keen to discuss energy prices and security (Qatar remains a major global producer of natural gas), as well as regional and global security. Doha remains a key backchannel for the US to communicate with both the Iranian regime and the Taliban.
• United Kingdom: Prime Minister Boris Johnson addresses the House of Commons at 1530GMT (1030ET, 1630CET) following the publication of the Gray report into breaches of COVID lockdown rules at 10 Downing Street during the height of the pandemic. Johnson remains under major pressure due to ‘Partygate’, with this statement potentially proving crucial in determining whether he continues in office or faces a leadership challenge.
• United States:Congress returns from a one-week break. Only 15 days from 31 January until a mid-February government shutdown kicks in, requiring a new funding package or continuing resolution to be passed to avoid the furloughing of large numbers of federal employees. Progressive Democrats also trying to set a 1 March deadline for the passage of the Build Back Better social spending package, but this appears unlikely with Democratic leadership and the White House not agreeing to commit to that date.
• South Korea:The two top candidates for the South Korean presidency engage in their first head-to-head debate ahead of the 9 March presidential election. Yoon Seok-youl of the conservative People Power Party will debate against Lee Jae-myung of the incumbent liberal Democratic Party of Korea. An expanded debate with minor party candidates will take place at a later date. North Korea’s sustained programme of missile tests and launches (latest coming on 30 January) likely to feature heavily in the debate.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead 31 Jan-6 Feb.pdf