MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Jan 4-10

All timings subject to change.

Monday 4 January:

• European Union: First working day of Portugal's chairing of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Portugal assumed the presidency from previous holders Germany on January 1 and will hold the chair until the end of June, when the presidency is assumed by Slovenia. Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva has stated the priority for the Portuguese presidency is "the full development of the EU's strategy of free, universal vaccination [from COVID-19]", as well as implementing the outcomes of major decisions reached at EU level during the past six months in relation to the long-term EU budget, the COVID-19 recovery plan, and the implementation of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement.
• China: Foreign Minister Wang Yi begins a six-day trip to sub-Saharan Africa. The trip will take in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Botswana, Tanzania, and the Seychelles, and comes as part of a long-term and successful strategy to bolster Chinese influence in SSA and ensure a supply of crucial and rare commodities to Chinese plants and factories. Since 1991, the first foreign trip of each year by the foreign minister has been to SSA.
• United Kingdom: Rollout of newly-approved COVID-19 vaccine from AstraZeneca/Oxford University begins. This vaccine does not need ultra-low temperature storage facilities unlike the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and comes as a fraction of the cost. Comes as new cases and pressure on hospitals from the virus in the UK spirals.
• Japan: Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga delivered his first new year press conference. During the conference, he stated that his government was considering the imposition of a state of emergency in Tokyo and surrounding prefectures due to a spike in COVID-19 cases. A major concern for the Japanese government remains the delayed Olympic Games, which are due to begin in 200 days.
• New Zealand, Russia, UK (Scotland): Public holiday for New Year. Russia has whole week of public holidays for Orthodox Christmas.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Jan 4-10.pdf