MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Mar 1-8

All timings subject to change.

Monday 1 March:

• United States: Senate continues to vote on Biden administration appointees, with nominees for Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona and Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo both set to receive their confirmation floor vote today, while the Senate Judiciary Committee votes on sending nominee for Attorney General Merrick Garland to the Senate floor. Nominee for the Director of Office of Management and Budget Neera Tanden set to meet with Sen. Lisa Murakowski (R-AK), a crucial swing vote in giving Tanden's nomination any prospect of being confirmed.
• US-Mexico: US President Joe Biden due to hold virtual meeting with his Mexican counterpart Andras Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Media speculation surrounds potential for the Mexican president to request COVID-19 vaccines are shared by the US with Mexico. AMLO has said developed markets receiving vast shipments of the vaccine unfair. Biden administration likely to reiterate 'number one priority' of getting US citizens vaccinated.
• Global: IHS Markit's CERAWeek oil and gas conference gets underway virtually following a two-year gap. Viewed as a major event in the hydrocarbon sector calendar, speakers include philanthropist Bill Gates, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Colombian President Ivan Duque, US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Change John Kerry, and the CEOs and presidents of oil and gas majors including BP, Exxon Mobil, Saudi Aramco, Royal Dutch Shell, and Total, among others.
• Japan: State of emergency provisions being lifted in six prefectures including Osaka and Nagoya as new COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations from the virus continue to subside. Tokyo and three surrounding prefectures remain under SoE provisions until 7 March at the earliest.
• Argentina: President Alberto Fernandez set to deliver annual state of the nation speech to the opening sessions of the National Congress. Fernandez struggling with accusations of cronyism affecting the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Argentina, and senior officials jumping the queue for a vaccination. Speech due to start around 1200 local time (1000ET, 1500GMT).
• Myanmar: Latest court hearing for State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under arrest since the military coup that took place on 1 February. Mass protests against the coup have gained momentum in recent days and have in turn been met with an increasingly harsh crackdown from military forces. There remains the risk of a major deterioration in political stability in the country.

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week Ahead Mar 1-8.pdf